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Midseason report: Texans offensive player projections

Posted Nov 7, 2012

At the midway point of the season, here are 16-game statistical projections for Texans offensive players based on their numbers through 8 games.


At the midway point of the season, here are 16-game statistical projections for various Texans offensive players based on their numbers through the first eight games:

QB Matt Schaub
8-game totals: 1,918 passing yards, 63.9%, 12 TD, 4 INT, sacked 10 times
16-game projections: 3,839 passing yards, 63.9%, 24 TD, 8 INT, sacked 20 times
Notes: Would be career-lows in interceptions (previous: 12, 2010) and sacks (25, 2009) in a 16-game season. Has a chance for his third 4,000-yard season in the last four years.

RB Arian Foster
8-game totals: 192 carries, 770 rushing yards (4.0 avg.), 10 TD; 12 catches, 77 yards (6.4 avg.), 1 TD
16-game projections: 384 carries, 1,540 rushing yards (4.0 avg.), 20 TD; 24 catches, 154 yards (6.4 avg.), 2 TD
Notes: Would be career-highs in carries (previous: 327 in 2010) and rushing touchdowns (previous: 16 in 2010). Would tie Larry Johnson for the 11th-most rushing touchdowns ever in a single season (all-time record: 28). Would be 14th-most carries all-time (record: 416). Yards per carry and receiving yards would be career-lows in a full season; averaged 4.7 per carry in last two seasons and topped 600 receiving yards in both. Career-high in rushing yards is 1,616 (2010).

RB Ben Tate
8-game totals*: 43 carries, 178 rushing yards (4.1 avg.), 2 TD; 9 catches, 48 yards (5.3 avg.)
16-game projections**: 115 carries, 475 rushing yards (4.1 avg.), 4 TD; 24 catches, 128 yards (5.3 avg.)
Notes: Ran for 942 yards on 5.4 per carry last season. Has missed one game with a toe injury and one game (and possibly more yet to come) with a hamstring injury. On pace to surpass career-highs in catches (13) and receiving yards (98), both set in 2011.
*Played in 6 games
** Based on per-game average

WR Andre Johnson
8-game totals: 42 catches, 562 yards (13.4 avg.), 2 TD
16-game projections: 84 catches, 1,124 yards (13.4 avg.), 4 TD
Notes: Would be his sixth 1,000-yard season in 10 years in the NFL. No other Texans player has any. Would give him 790 career catches (25th all-time) and 10,780 career receiving yards (30th all-time). Would match his lowest TD total in a full season (2003).

TE Owen Daniels
8-game totals: 37 catches, 478 yards (12.9 avg.), 5 TD
16-game projections: 74 catches, 956 yards (12.9 avg.), 10 TD
Notes: Would be career-highs in every category except average per catch (13.0, 2009). Other previous career-highs: 70 catches (2008), 862 yards (2008), 5 TD (2006, 2009). Would be the most receiving yards ever by a Texans player other than Johnson.

WR Kevin Walter
8-game totals: 21 catches, 307 yards (14.6 avg.), 2 TD
16-game projections: 42 catches, 614 yards (14.6 avg.), 4 TD
Notes: Would be his fifth 600-yard season in the last six years. Would be his highest average per catch since 2008 (career-high 15.0).

FB James Casey
8-game totals: 21 catches, 211 yards (10.0 avg.), 1 TD
16-game projections: 42 catches, 422 yards (10.0 avg.), 2 TD
Notes: Would more than double his previous career-high of 18 receptions (2011). Would also surpass career-highs in receiving yards (260) and TDs (1), both set last season.

TE Garrett Graham
8-game totals: 10 catches, 122 yards (12.2 avg.), 1 TD
16-game projections: 20 catches, 244 yards (12.2 avg.), 2 TD
Notes: In his previous two seasons, had one career catch for 24 yards.

Twitter.com/NickScurfield

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