The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars renew AFC South hostilities at noon Sunday at NRG Stadium, with both teams carrying the battle scars of a long NFL season and unresolved business from their Week 3 meeting.
On Texans All Access, Marc Vandermeer and John Harris broke down a rematch that looks significantly different from the first encounter.
THE WEEK 3 CONTEXT
"This is a rematch. Week three Texans lost to the Jaguars," Vandermeer said. "It was turnover city in the fourth quarter. The Jags end of the field. Plus the Texans got a touchdown in that quarter. Somehow lost the game because of the turnovers really. Played well enough to win."
That loss still stings for Houston, which controlled stretches of the game before fourth-quarter turnovers proved decisive. The rematch provides an opportunity for redemption—but both teams enter in dramatically different circumstances.
INJURY IMPACT ON BOTH SIDES
"This is a little bit of a different situation now. You have Davis Mills going for the Houston Texans. You have the Jags at 5-3, feeling pretty good about themselves after their overtime win against the Raiders," Vandermeer said.
Harris provided context for how dramatically injuries have altered the landscape.
"The Jaguars' receiver core is decimated. That's why they went out and traded for Jacobi Myers, they're missing Travis Hunter," Harris noted. "Defensively, they're banged up. Eric Murray, former Texan who had kind of solidified that secondary, he's going to be out."
THE OPPORTUNITY IN ADVERSITY
With both teams compromised by injuries, the contest becomes about execution and exploitation.
"So you've got opportunities on both sides to kind of take advantage of, all right, the Texans right side of the offensive line, the Jaguars secondary," Harris explained. "Which team can take advantage of the issue, so to speak, the injury issue, the best, will walk out of there with a win."
TREVOR LAWRENCE'S STRUGGLES
Despite Jacksonville's 5-3 record, QB Trevor Lawrence hasn't produced at the level some hoped in his fifth NFL season.
"Trevor Lawrence, unimpressive numbers. Quarterback rating below 80. Six picks, nine touchdowns, completion percentage below 60. This is not what they envisioned in year five, yet here they are at 5-3," Vandermeer observed.
The disconnect between Lawrence's statistics and Jacksonville's record suggests the Jaguars have found success through other means—primarily their running game with Travis Etienne Jr. and opportunistic defense.
DAVIS MILLS' OPPORTUNITY
For Mills, this represents a chance to build on his career success against AFC South opponents.
"We haven't talked about Davis Mills much," Vandermeer said. "He's 4-5-1 in his career against the AFC South. He's done it before he could do it."
Mills has been solid in these divisional matchups throughout his career. Sunday provides another opportunity to prove he can manage a game effectively when called upon.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Both teams enter this matchup depleted but determined. Jacksonville rides momentum from a dramatic overtime victory, powered by Cam Little's record-setting 68-yard field goal. Houston seeks redemption for the Week 3 loss while navigating potentially significant personnel losses.
The Jaguars rank third in rush defense, led by linebackers Ventrell Miller, Devin Lloyd, and Foyesade Oluokun. Their pass rush revolves almost entirely around Josh Hines-Allen, who remains one of the league's most disruptive edge rushers. Offensively, they lean heavily on Etienne while Lawrence manages the passing game.
The Texans must protect Davis Mills, particularly from Hines-Allen's disruption, while establishing enough of a running game to avoid obvious passing situations. Defensively, containing Etienne without allowing him to turn short gains into explosive plays will be essential.
"Texans Jags, Sunday at noon. Go Texans," Vandermeer concluded.
The team that best navigates its injury challenges while capitalizing on opponent weaknesses should emerge victorious in this critical AFC South battle.
