Breakfast: Pick predictions are tricky


As I surveyed Drew Dougherty's post of the latest Mock Draft consensus, I thought about how many times so many of the national draft 'experts' had been wrong about what the Texans might do with their first pick. Of the thirteen Texans drafts, only five were widely predicted correctly. Here's a quick glance at the Texans first picks and what the prognostication temperature was going into each draft.

2002- David Carr – We all knew he was the guy. There was virtually no debate about whether the team would take Julius Peppers because the brass was very clear about wanting to draft a franchise quarterback and it wasn't going to be Joey Harrington.

2003 – Andre Johnson – This was another virtual lay-up. It was expected that Charles Rogers would go second to Detroit (thank goodness), after Carson Palmer went to Cincinnati.

2004 – Dunta Robinson – This was the first time there was some mystery in the initial pick. What if DeAngelo Hall would fall to them? He didn't, going 8th to Atlanta.

2005 – Travis Johnson – Almost no one expected Travis to be picked, especially after the Texans dropped down three spots in a trade with New Orleans.

2006 – Mario Williams – Mario was perhaps the ultimate upset first pick for this franchise. Reggie Bush was the consensus selection until the night before the draft when the world learned that Houston was going to make an unpopular choice (that turned out to be the right one).

2007 – Amobi Okoye – He was projected to go higher than 10th so the fact that he was even there, made this a surprise pick.

2008 – Duane Brown – The seventh tackle taken, Brown turned out to be an upset pick and a darn good one after the team moved down in the first round after a trade with Baltimore.

2009 – Brian Cushing – We all expected either Cushing or Clay Mathews. So this wasn't much of a shocker.

2010 – Kareem Jackson – Everyone was thinking corner. But the consensus was that either Kyle Wilson or Devin McCourty would be the guy. Houston surprised most of the pundits by picking Jackson, who just signed an extension.

2011 – J.J. Watt – Some actually booed this pick on draft day. Everyone was thinking 'they need a pass rusher.' Little did they know they would get an all-time great.

2012 – Whitney Mercilus – This unexpected pick was wildly cheered on draft night because Mercilus dropped on some boards and the Texans were able to pounce on the NCAA sack leader.

2013 – DeAndre Hopkins – DHop was guessed by many and cheered by many.

2014 – Jadeveon Clowney – There was little doubt the Texans would take the best player available even though some were holding out, thinking quarterback.

The Houston Texans roster in photos. (Updated 7/26/2021)

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