Things to Watch is adapted from a conversation between Voice of the Texans Marc Vandermeer and Sideline Analyst John Harris.
When the Houston Texans host the Jacksonville Jaguars at noon Sunday, the outcome may hinge on how well they handle three critical challenges that will define the game. On Texans All Access, Marc Vandermeer and John Harris broke down the key factors.
CONTAINING JOSH HINES-ALLEN
The Jaguars' edge rusher tops the list of concerns, and with good reason.
"Josh Hines-Allen. Three names, three things. He's the first thing really," Harris said. "Got to keep him off Davis Mills."
In the Week 3 matchup between these teams, Hines-Allen made his presence felt despite solid play from Texans left tackle Aireontae Ersery.
"Aireontae Ersery had him last time. Hines-Allen got some things done, knocked the ball on that final pick that C.J. threw and intended for [Christian] Kirk," Harris recalled. "Well, you have to have the clean pocket long enough for Davis Mills."
The challenge is magnified by Jacksonville's otherwise pedestrian pass rush.
"The Jags aren't very good at getting to the quarterback, last in the league. So very bad, as a matter of fact, collectively," Harris noted. "But Hines-Allen is a thorn or a dagger in the side. And he has been ever since he got to Jacksonville."
Harris shared a vivid memory that captures why Hines-Allen presents such problems.
"I stood next to him on the field one time when he when he came up, there's a play ended up on our sideline. I just remember kind of gawking at him like dang, he's long but he's strong and he's explosive off the ball," Harris said. "He doesn't just roll off and let his power do it for him. He's powerful and fast and that is really what created problems, especially in that last play because it looked like Aireontae had him."
"Keeping him just away from the pocket is going to take a couple of people," Harris said. "Now, who all do you devote to it? Aireontae has improved since that Jacksonville game. Let's be honest. He has improved, but you still need the insurance of, we're going to let Woody go over here."
Injuries complicate the equation further. Without right tackle Tytus Howard, the Texans may need to deploy protection schemes that help Blake Fisher against Travon Walker, which could create opportunities for Hines-Allen to move around.
"Here's the issue. Because of that and because of the injuries, you may not have tightest set right tackle. So do you have to go over and help Blake if Blake is going up against Walker?" Harris asked. "And does Josh Hines-Allen then move over there to go against Blake? Then do you help on that side?"
The bottom line remains constant: "There's a lot of decisions that Texans have to make, but the biggest one they have to make sure is that Hines-Allen doesn't wreck the game."
STOPPING TRAVIS ETIENNE JR.
While the Jags' passing game isn't a primary threat, RB Travis Etienne Jr. represents a different story entirely.
Vandermeer framed the challenge clearly: "Another thing to watch out for Travis Etienne. This is a top 10 runner in this league, very physical, having a good season. I think he's much more of a concern for this defense than Trevor Lawrence himself. Am I right?"
Harris confirmed emphatically: "Yes."
The analytics support Jacksonville's reliance on their ground game.
"I wrote about this in Know Your Foe this week that when Travis Etienne has a great game, define great however you want. when he's getting 20 to 25 touches, combined receptions and carries, Jacksonville's offense is tough to stop," Harris explained.
Last week's overtime victory against the Raiders provided the blueprint for Jacksonville's approach.
"Last week against the Raiders, he got a ton of carries. Now, he didn't get a ton of yards. He ran, think, 22 times for like 85-ish yards. But that was enough. That was enough to keep the Raiders off balance. And then Trevor threw it pretty well throughout the second half. Etienne is the driver. He's the engine."
Houston's defensive priority is straightforward: Gang tackling.
"You must tackle him," Harris stressed. "And there have been, he's been there since we faced him since '22. He was injured in 21, but we faced him since '22. And he has been difficult to tackle every time we have played him."
CAM LITTLE'S KICKING RANGE
The Jaguars' rookie kicker adds an unconventional wrinkle to game management decisions.
"I'll give you another thing to watch out for, Cam Little, because he kicked a 68 yarder last week," Vandermeer said. "It's bombs away with the Jags in the field goal department. He kicked a 70 yarder in the preseason."
While Little hasn't been perfectly consistent, his range changes fourth down decision-making.
"Now he hasn't always been the most consistent, but, and opposing field goal kickers tend to miss against the Texans. But when they get to the 50, they're going to go forward," Vandermeer noted. "If they have that opportunity late in the game, they're down three or they're within that. They can do it with Cam Little from the 50 cause that's a 68 yarder right there."
The NRG Stadium environment should favor Little's leg.
"We play on turf and we play inside. He doesn't have to deal with the weather, the elements," Vandermeer said.
However, Harris identified a potential counter-measure.
"The Texas do a great job of scheming Denico Autry up to potentially block field goals. So that's one thing he does have to worry about and against us in Jacksonville, he missed a big one in the second half," Harris added.
Vandermeer painted the late-game scenario that could unfold.
"That's when you know though, okay, all I gotta do is get to 50. I mean, think about a late game situation and maybe we're up to and Trevor sitting there going with 16 seconds left. We, they get a touchback. They take the ball to 35. They throw a dig route to midfield, spike it. Hey, we'll try a 67 yarder off turf indoors. They'll absolutely do it. So you got to make sure that you can little proof this game that he doesn't have a shot to do something like that at the end of it."
The Texans and Jaguars kick off at noon Sunday at NRG Stadium.
