When I wrote my "Know Your Foe"article back in early December for the first matchup of 2025 with the hated Indianapolis Colts, the Colts squad was 8-3, well ahead of every team in the AFC South. Their offense was still one of the best in the league, even though there was a bit of oil leaking. Their defense added star CB Sauce Gardner to a group that was still playing at a relatively high level. They had a 20-9 lead over the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium in the fourth quarter the week prior, looking to finish strongly and return to Indy at 9-2.
Then, it went south. ALL of it.
They blew that 11 point lead in Kansas City, losing to the Chiefs. Furthermore, Colts QB Daniel Jones injured his fibula in that game, rendering him immobile, to say the least, against the Texans. Gardner was injured on the second play of the game against the Texans and missed the rest of that game and the next three as well. Then, the Texans hammered the Colts, giving them a second loss in a row. Then, Jones tore his Achilles against the Jaguars the following week and the season circled the drain.
Hall of Fame candidate QB Philip Rivers was brought out of moth balls to give the Colts a Hail Mary of a chance down the stretch, but the Colts lost Rivers' three starts against three 12+ win teams. Even before the final loss to Jacksonville, they'd been eliminated from the playoffs.
From 7-1 to 8-8 and out of the playoffs. A painful, PAINFUL second half of the season allowed the Jaguars and Texans to move ahead in the standings and lock up playoff berths, extending the Colts' playoff drought to five years. To put that in context, the Texans won two AFC South titles and won two Wild Card playoff games, the Titans earned a #1 seed in 2021 and the Jaguars have earned two playoff berths, winning a Wild Card playoff game in 2022.
Colts? No playoff visits since 2020.
Back in May when the schedule was announced, Marc and I wondered aloud whether this game would matter and we hoped that it wouldn't for the Texans. Well, it doesn't for the Colts and that could make them super dangerous on Sunday. As such, let's get to know even more about the Texans Week 18 regular season finale foe - the 8-8 Indianapolis Colts.
2025 Indianapolis Colts (8-8)
- Week 1 - W Miami Dolphins 33-8
- Week 2 - W Denver Broncos 29-28
- Week 3 - W @ Tennessee Titans 41-20
- Week 4 - L @ Los Angeles Rams 27-20
- Week 5 - W Las Vegas Raiders 40-6
- Week 6 - W Arizona Cardinals 31-27
- Week 7 - W @ Los Angeles Chargers 38-24
- Week 8 - W Tennessee Titans 38-14
- Week 9 - L @ Pittsburgh Steelers 27-20
- Week 10 - W Atlanta Falcons 31-25 (Berlin, Germany)
- Week 11 - BYE WEEK
- Week 12 - L @ Kansas City Chiefs 23-20
- Week 13 - L Houston Texans L 20-16
- Week 14 - L @ Jacksonville Jaguars L 36-19
- Week 15 - L @ Seattle Seahawks 18-16
- Week 16 - L San Francisco 49ers 48-27
- Week 17 - L Jacksonville Jaguars 23-17
- Week 18 - @ Houston Texans
Colts OFFENSE (in 2025 regular season)
- Rushing Yards Per game - 120.7 ypg (14th in the NFL)
- Passing Yards Per game - 224.7 ypg (12th)
- Total offense per game - 345.4 ypg (11th)
- Turnovers lost - 20 (7 Fumbles lost, 13 INT)
Expected Colts starting offense for Week 18
- QB - RILEY LEONARD
- RB - Jonathan Taylor
- TE - TYLER WARREN
- WR - Michael Pittman Jr.
- WR - Josh Downs
- WR - Alec Pierce
- LT - Bernhard Raimann
- LG - Quenton Nelson
- C - Tanor Bortolini
- RG - Matt Goncalves
- RT - JALEN TRAVIS
Key Offensive Non-Starters
- TE - Drew Ogletree
- TE - Mo Alie-Cox
- TE - Will Mallory
- OT - Blake Freeland
- WR - Anthony Gould
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2025
Keys to winning v. the Colts Offense
- Who's the NEW guy? - Riley Leonard will start at QB for the Colts. Since 2015, the Colts have started the following QBs against the Texans…
Matt Hasselbeck (2)
Andrew Luck (4 + 1 playoff game start)
Jacoby Brissett (4)
Philip Rivers (2)
Carson Wentz (2)
Matt Ryan (1)
Sam Ehlinger (1)
Anthony Richardson (3)
Gardner Minshew (1)
Daniel Jones (1)
Riley Leonard (1)
That's 11 quarterbacks over 11 seasons AND we almost got a Philip Rivers return appointment, but after being eliminated from the playoffs, Colts head coach Shane Steichen decided to hand the starting opportunity to Leonard, the rookie from Notre Dame. So, what do we know about Leonard? Here's my scouting report from my Draft analysis from last year:
*
Size (6-4, 209 lb.). Extremely accurate, ¾ arm slot motion. Incredibly athletic with the ball in his hands. Tons of room to still grow into the type of QB that the NFL now desires. NFL teams will drool over his combination of size, speed, decision-making, accurate and tough. Composed with plenty of poise.*
*
In the 2023 opener against Clemson, he showed more of his toughness and running skills than his pass prowess. His touchdown run in the third quarter was straight up a MAN'S run, from a damn QB! He can fly and it showed when he sped down the sideline. If anything, it made the nation take notice of what the young man CAN do in the future. Oh, it's SO darn bright.*
He never got to THAT level after transferring to Notre Dame, but he did lead with his running ability for the Irish. I thought he threw it better at Duke, but he was a gamer last year in key spots for the Irish. In his lone action this year at Jacksonville, he flashed at times, but he was rushed and never got truly comfortable. Watching Rivers the past three weeks had to help Leonard and, look, there's nothing to lose, honestly. He can be a bit more, say, risky with the ball because, well, what's there for him to lose? He has to show the Colts brass what his future COULD be if he wants to stay in the league, and with the Colts. Expect a ton of QB designed runs. Expect deep shots. Expect the unexpected with Leonard under center this week.
2. The Question isn't Q - There is no question who is the leader of this Indianapolis Colts offense. He's the one guy's jersey that I see the most in the stands when I'm in Indy for a game or for the Combine. #56. Quenton Nelson. Since 2018, he's been the bedrock piece for this offense. He's the best guard that I've seen in person and I see him twice a year…unfortunately. He can take over the game with his power, quickness and agility. I've seen him bury defenders at the point of attack, including some poor Texans DTs over the years. That said, the Texans defensive interior needs work against guards with Nelson's attitude and demeanor. Nelson has seen it all and he often leads the way for star RB Jonathan Taylor. Leki Fotu, Naquan Jones and company have to answer his juice with juice of their own to have success against JT, who'll be looking to put up a big number on the ground to take the 2025 NFL rushing title. 3. JT28 is waiting…again - In the 2019 regular season finale, the Texans had the AFC South sewn up so the result of the game with Tennessee had no bearing on the playoffs. But, Tennessee had a shot at the playoffs if they could beat the Texans at NRG Stadium. Against a scaled down Texans defense, Titans star RB Derrick Henry went OFF. He ran for over 200 yards, secured the rushing title and sealed the win over the Texans to send the Titans into the playoffs. Jonathan Taylor can't lead the Colts to the playoffs, but he has a history of torturing the Texans on the ground (like Henry), whether, or not, the playoffs are on the line. I'd expect the Colts to help Riley Leonard with a healthy dose of Taylor. That does two things. One, it helps Leonard not have to carry the offense and two, Taylor IS the best offensive asset on the Colts roster. He may not see the Texans' full defensive roster for a full 60 minutes, but he's going to try to win that rushing title to save some face during a season gone south for the Colts.
Colts DEFENSE (in 2025 regular season)
- Rushing Yards Allowed Per game - 99.9 ypg (5th in the NFL)
- Passing Yards Allowed Per game - 250.6 ypg (31st)
- Total offense Allowed per game - 350.5 ypg (24th)
- Turnovers generated - 21 (14 INT, 7 Fumble recoveries - Colts are +1 in TO margin in 2025)
Expected Colts starting defense for Week 18
- DE - Kwity Paye
- DT - Adetomiwa Adebawore
- DT - Grover Stewart
- DE - Laiatu Latu
- LB - Zaire Franklin
- LB - GERMAINE PRATT
- Nickel - Kenny Moore II
- CB - MEKHI BLACKMON
- S - CAM BYNUM
- S - Nick Cross
- CB - SAUCE GARDNER or CAMERON MITCHELL
Key Defensive Non-Starters
- DE - Samson Ebukam
- NT - ERIC JOHNSON II
- DE - Tyquan Lewis
- DT - Neville Gallimore
- CB - Jaylon Jones
- LB - Segun Olubi
- LB - Austin Ajiake
- Edge - J.T TUIMOLOAU
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2025
Italics - Rookie
Keys to winning v. the Colts Defense
- Stewart, No Buck, part II - Colts DT DeForest Buckner has been the focal point for the Indianapolis Colts defense since he arrived in 2020, but in the first matchup, Buckner was inactive because of a neck injury. He returned a few weeks later, but injured his neck again and was put on season ending IR. I HATE seeing great players injured, HATE it, but if the Texans were going to miss seeing big #99 in the finale, it's going to help the offensive interior for certain. Now, his replacement is getting better and better - Tommy Adebawore. Buckner's 6-7 while Adebawore is lucky if he's 6-2. Buckner is power and levers and overall physical dominance. Adebawore is lightning quick and powerful as all get out. He was a bit of an issue in the first matchup, so the interior will still have its hands full with Tommy A and Grover Stewart.
- Big Z - Since he arrived in Indianapolis, LB Zaire Franklin has been the leader of the Colts defense. In 2024, he was named to the Pro Bowl and piled up 173 tackles in the process, but in 2025, his tackle numbers are done. His havoc plays are down. Teams are doing a better job of getting a hat on Franklin consistently, but the Texans did struggle with their interior run game, especially duo plays. Franklin was quick to trigger when he saw an open A/B gap, shot the gap and made some stuffs/tackles that slowed the Texans offense. I'd imagine he's going to want to end the season on a high note, so I expect #44 to be all over the field, working from inside/out, going sideline to sideline, all day long.
- Corner Question Marks - My hope is that Texans Pro Bowl WR Nico Collins doesn't play long in this matchup with the Colts so he can get a bit of rest as we head into the playoffs the following week. But, the Colts would welcome his absence as he's torched the Colts defense no matter when, or where, the two teams play. One major reason they'd appreciate a break from Collins is the availability of the Colts corner backs. On the second play of the week 13 matchup with the Texans, Colts former Pro Bowl CB Sauce Gardner pulled up with a calf injury. He returned last week against the Jaguars but reaggravated the calf injury. Free agent signing Charvarius Ward has been placed on IR with a third concussion this season. Backup, and 2024 starter, Jaylon Jones was injured last week as well. Cameron Mitchell has been in Indianapolis all of about six weeks. The Colts have played NINE cornerbacks this year. Even if Nico's reps are limited, the Texans WR corps can get open against this group of corners…and they need to exploit the lack of starters in the Colts' secondary, early and often.
