From 2011 through 2019, the Texans won the AFC South division six times and the Jaguars won it once. The Texans had seven nine win seasons in that time span and an overall record of 76-68, while the Jaguars had one nine win season and an overall record of 43-101.
In 2020 and 2021, the Texans swept the Jaguars each game, while the Jaguars won just four games combined in those seasons. The Jaguars started 2022 in the same manner, falling to 2-6 after eight games.
But, that's where things changed significantly for the Jaguars and the whole division. The Jaguars finished the season with five wins in a row, including winning the de Facto AFC South championship against Tennessee at home. They then overcame a 27-0 deficit to the Los Angeles Chargers to win an iconic Wild Card game in Duval County. From that point forward, the Jaguars have been the clear favorite in the AFC South, in large part due to the marriage of QB Trevor Lawrence and head coach Doug Pederson.
Behind those two, the Jaguars went to Indianapolis and won their opener on the road, but lost to a gritty Kansas City Chiefs squad in week two. They're flying to London next week for their two week road trip overseas, so perhaps there's a chance to stick and move and jab and counter and frustrate one of the AFC's best teams on Sunday before they go on vacation, errr, their work trip.
As such, let's get to Know the Texans' Week 3 Foe - the Jacksonville Jaguars
2023 Schedule (1-1)
Week 1 - W @ Indianapolis Colts 31-21
Week 2 - L Kansas City Chiefs 17-9
Week 3 - Houston Texans
Week 4 - Atlanta Falcons (London)
Week 5 - @ Buffalo Bills (London)
Week 6 - Indianapolis Colts
Week 7 - @ New Orleans Saints
Week 8 - @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 9 - BYE
Week 10 - San Francisco 49ers
Week 11 - Tennessee Titans
Week 12 - @ Houston Texans
Week 13 - Cincinnati Bengals
Week 14 - @ Cleveland Browns
Week 15 - Baltimore Ravens
Week 16 - @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 17 - Carolina Panthers
Week 18 - @ Tennessee Titans
Jaguars OFFENSE (in 2023 regular season)
Rushing Yards Per game - 89.5 ypg (24th in the NFL)
Passing Yards Per game - 217.0 ypg (14th)
Total offense per game - 306.5 ypg (22nd)
Turnovers lost - 3 (1 INT, 2 Fumbles lost)
Expected Jaguars starting offense for Week 3
QB - Trevor Lawrence
RB - Travis Etienne
WR - Christian Kirk
WR - CALVIN RIDLEY
WR - Zay Jones
TE - Evan Engram
LT - Walker Little
LG - Ben Bartch
C - Luke Fortner
RG - Brandon Scherff
RT - ANTON HARRISON
Other Key Offensive pieces
Weapon X - Jamal Agnew
RB - TANK BIGSBY
RB - D'ERNEST JOHNSON
TE - Luke Farrell
WR - Tim Jones
OL - Tyler Shatley
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2023
Keys to winning v. the Jaguars Offense
1. The NEW Trevor, Part II - Last year, I wrote about how Trevor Lawrence was changing in front of our eyes. Then, he went out in week five and sprayed the ball all over TIAA-CREF Bank Stadium like the wild stallion he was in his rookie year of 2021. That cost the Jaguars a win over the Texans. But, in the second half of the 2022 season, Lawrence gave into head coach Doug Pederson's teachings, followed HIS instruction and turned his career all the way around. It was in that win over the Ravens last year where Lawrence saw the light. He became the truly NEW Trevor that day and hasn't slowed since. Well, until Kansas City harassed him all day last week. The Jaguars couldn't block DL Chris Jones and he forced Lawrence into a 22-for-41-for-216-yards day with no TD. The Texans ability to get consistent pressure on Lawrence will determine whether the NEW Trevor shows up and deals or the OLD Trevor struggles to move the ball against a determined pass rush/coverage unit.
2. RB1 - In the Texans win over the Jaguars in week 5 in 2022, Jaguars RB Travis Etienne was a forgotten piece for the Jaguars offense. He gashed the Texans early in the game and then in the second half, he didn't see the field. By week 17 last year, though, Etienne had taken over as the Jaguars RB1 and hasn't looked back. His powerful explosiveness shines through in both the run and pass game. He's decisive and a north/south runner so he's going to be licking his chops to face this Texans defense that was decimated by Colts RB Zack Moss. If the Texans' struggles with Moss show themselves against this week, Etienne will embarrass them even worse than Moss did.
3. A Little Rookie - Now, no one is actually a little rookie, but it is the Jaguars tackle situation. At left tackle, the Jaguars are playing former Bellaire Episcopal star Walker LITTLE. Over at RT, the Jaguars have a ROOKIE Anton Harrison. Little has just eight career starts while this will be Harrison's third start in the NFL. That's something the Texans have to take advantage of from jump. The Texans were unable to get pressure on Colts QBs last weekend, but faced as good a tackle duo as they're going to face all year - Braden Smith and Bernhard Raimann. Against a Little and a Rookie, Will Anderson Jr., Jonathan Greenard and company MUST win those battles to get pressure on Lawrence.
Jaguars DEFENSE (in 2023 regular season)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per game - 83.0 ypg (8th in the NFL)
Passing Yards Allowed Per game - 256.5 ypg (25th)
Total offense Allowed per game - 339.5 ypg (18th)
Turnovers generated - 6 (2 INT, 4 Fumble recoveries - Jaguars are +3 in TO margin)
Expected Jaguars starting defense for Week 3
OLB - Josh Allen
DL - Folo Fatukasi
DL - Adam Gotsis
DL - Roy Robertson-Harris
OLB - Travon Walker
WLB - Devin Lloyd
MLB - Foye Oluokun
CB - Tyson Campbell
S - Rayshawn Jenkins
S - Andre Cisco
CB - Darious Williams
Other Key Defensive pieces
OLB - K'Lavon Chiasson
DT - ANGELO BLACKSON
S - Andrew Wingard
OLB - Shaq Quarterman
S/ST - Daniel Thomas
DE - TYLER LACY
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2023
Keys to winning v. the Jaguars Defense
1. See ball, Get ball - For each and every game on the sideline, I'm always in queue in Marc Vandermeer's ear. I spot for him on the sideline as much as I can. During the last two games against Jacksonville, I must have said the name "Oluokun" 50 times if I said it once. It wasn't just us either because Jacksonville LB Foye Oluokun tackled ball carriers 184 times in 2022, which led the league. Fellow LB Devin Lloyd had some struggles later in his rookie campaign, but he's come back in 2023 with a vengeance. Now, Jacksonville has two guys that I'm going to have to whisper in Marc's ear during our broadcast. If the Texans can't get a hat on either one, I'll say those names WAY more than I want.
2. Tyson's going to knock you out - Last year, Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell and Texans WR Nico Collins were two young players just trying to find their way. In a key moment in the Texans win in week five, Collins won round one with a tremendous catch over Campbell on the sideline to keep the game winning scoring drive alive. But, Campbell's game went to a different level after that loss to the Texans. The good news is that Nico's game has taken massive steps in the first two weeks working with QB C.J. Stroud. This Campbell-Collins tete-a-tete will be a key battle in this game and well worth the price of admission.
3. Ray's Way - The most important player on the Jacksonville defense might actually be safety Rayshawn Jenkins. He plays the run like a linebacker. He plays with range in the middle of the field or in the hook/curl zone or in the flat. He's given that defense an attitude and his big plays set the tone for that entire unit. For as much as Josh Allen is the most dynamic, Travon Walker the most athletic, Oluokun the most productive, the straw that stirs that drink is Jenkins. Stroud must be aware of his presence at all times in the passing game and the OL must account for him in the run fit as well.
